The UK needs to achieve growth and improve the nation’s productivity to create the economic and social wellbeing and stability we yearn for over the next 20-30 years. Economic growth drives the delivery of new homes, but it is also dependent on having the homes that the people who create that growth need.
This initiative sets out to look beyond the UK Government’s ambitious target of delivering 1.5 million new homes by 2029 to show how an understanding of demand patterns, demographic trends, and economic engines can shape the future supply of homes in the UK. Connecting people with opportunity and the diversity of people’s preferences and needs should guide the types of homes we build.
Ministers are clearly serious about the breadth of housing delivery, from good quality affordable homes for those on lower incomes to addressing the senior living market, and all points in between. Smaller housebuilders need to be able to play their part, an ambition ministers say will be realised through greater access to bank finance. Additionally, build-to-rent (BTR) developers will benefit from a reopened Private Rented Sector Guarantee Scheme, with nearly £2 billion available to boost delivery.
Understanding a range of life milestones, such as achieving economic independence (25-26 years), first home purchase (33.8 years), and mortgage payoff (60 years), is critical in understanding the timing and nature of housing demand.
Over the next year, this research initiative will explore the homes we need to build based on the factors that influence lived experience. We will delve into demographics and different locations across the UK to understand what external economic factors impact the choices people have.
- Economic independence and affordability
People start working at 17 and become economically independent in their mid-twenties, but it takes another decade to afford buying a home. Affordability to both buy or rent, in proximity to employment, is an increasing issue for this age group.
- Profile of first-time buyers
The average age of first-time buyers is now 33.8 years. Many will be parents with growing families and not necessarily the young individual or couple we might think of.
- Family dynamics
Trends in marriage, co-habitation, divorce, and single-parent households are important drivers for changes in needs.
- Multigenerational homes
Increasingly, children live longer at home or parents join younger generations, forming multigenerational homes.
- Under-occupation
70% of people stay in their family home after children move out, leading to under-occupation and cost of living challenges.
- Aging population
In some cities, 30% of the population is 55 and over. The developing variance in the age profile in UK cities has the potential to drive demand, both now and in the next 30 years.
- Existing buildings
With 80% of 2050’s buildings already built, new homes must support economic and social wellbeing while achieving Net Zero goals.
- Necessary infrastructure
Homes do not exist in isolation; sustainable communities are built upon infrastructure including transport, energy, schools, hospitals, retail, leisure and of course employment.
